@MastersThesis{Nogueira:2010:EsCa,
author = "Nogueira, Jos{\'e} H{\'e}lio Abreu",
title = "Sensibilidade da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o simulada na regi{\~a}o
do Centro de Lan{\c{c}}amento de Alc{\^a}ntara a esquemas de
convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o expl{\'{\i}}cita: estudos de caso",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2010",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2010-05-05",
keywords = "precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, Centro de Lan{\c{c}}amento de
Alc{\^a}ntara (CLA),esquemas de convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o, Instituto
de Controle do Espa{\c{c}}o A{\'e}reo (ICEA), modelo regional
MM5, precipitation, Alc{\^a}ntara Launch Center (CLA), convection
schemes, Air Space Control Institute (ICEA), regional model MM5.",
abstract = "Eventos de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o ocorridos na regi{\~a}o do
Centro de Lan{\c{c}}amento de Alc{\^a}ntara (CLA) foram
simulados com o modelo regional MM5 em grades aninhadas para
avaliar a sensibilidade da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o simulada a 1)
uso de diferentes esquemas de convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o
expl{\'{\i}}cita e 2) retirada do esquema de
convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o impl{\'{\i}}cita nas grades de maior
resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o horizontal. O trabalho consistiu em duas
partes. Na parte I, foram utilizadas tr{\^e}s grades aninhadas
centradas sobre o CLA (27, 9 e 3 km de espa{\c{c}}amento).
Inicialmente, diferentes esquemas de convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o
expl{\'{\i}}cita foram utilizados juntamente com esquema de
convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o impl{\'{\i}}cita nas tr{\^e}s grades
(aproxima{\c{c}}{\~a}o h{\'{\i}}brida) para simular quatro
eventos de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Apesar de todos os esquemas
levarem a erros expressivos, o Simple Ice apresentou melhores
resultados. Ent{\~a}o, os mesmos eventos foram simulados
empregando somente o Simple Ice nas grades de 3 e/ou 9 km de
espa{\c{c}}amento. A representa{\c{c}}{\~a}o da
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o na grade de 3 km apresentou melhorias
expressivas quando se empregou somente o esquema de
convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o expl{\'{\i}}cita nas grades de 9 e 3 km.
Na parte II, simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es para o per{\'{\i}}odo de 1
m{\^e}s (mar{\c{c}}o de 2009) foram realizadas com uma
vers{\~a}o operacional do MM5 instalada no Instituto de Controle
do Espa{\c{c}}o A{\'e}reo (ICEA). Grades aninhadas com
espa{\c{c}}amento de 36 e 12 km, centrado no Nordeste do Brasil,
foram utilizadas. Na grade de 12 km, o uso tanto de
aproxima{\c{c}}{\~a}o h{\'{\i}}brida (ICEA1) quanto de somente
esquema de convec{\c{c}}{\~a}o expl{\'{\i}}cita (Simple Ice;
ICEA2), levaram a uma boa representa{\c{c}}{\~a}o da
variabilidade interdi{\'a}ria da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, embora
tenham superestimado o total de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o no
per{\'{\i}}odo. ICEA2 produziu n{\'u}cleos de elevada
intensidade de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, enquanto ICEA1 gerou
{\'a}reas de chuva mais espalhadas e com intensidade menor.
Apesar de constatada sensibilidade da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
simulada ao uso de diferentes estrat{\'e}gias, os erros em
rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\`a}s observa{\c{c}}{\~o}es impediram que
se apontasse a superioridade de uma delas. Assim como observado em
trabalhos anteriores, persistem as d{\'u}vidas sobre a
rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o entre adequa{\c{c}}{\~a}o do uso de
aproxima{\c{c}}{\~a}o h{\'{\i}}brida e resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o
espacial dos dom{\'{\i}}nios utilizados em
simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es com modelos de mesoescala, pois a
utiliza{\c{c}}{\~a}o de somente esquemas expl{\'{\i}}citos nas
grades de menor espa{\c{c}}amento, no presente estudo, n{\~a}o
garantiu melhorias expressivas das previs{\~o}es de
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o. ABSTRACT: Precipitation events over the
Alc{\^a}ntara Launch Center (CLA, Brazil) were simulated using
the MM5 regional model in nested domains to assess the sensitivity
of simulated precipitation to 1) the use of different explicit
convection schemes and 2) turning off the implicit convection
scheme in the domains with higher horizontal resolution. This work
is composed by two parts. In part I, three nested domains centered
at CLA (27, 9 and 3 km grid spacing) were used. Initially,
different explicit convection schemes were used along with an
implicit convection scheme for all domains (hybrid approach) to
simulate four precipitation events. Despite the marked errors
found for all schemes, the Simple Ice scheme showed better
results. Then, the same events were simulated using only the
Simple Ice scheme in the 3 and/or 9 km grid spacing domains. The
representation of precipitation in the 3 km grid spacing domain
showed significant improvement when only explicit convection
scheme was used in both 9 and 3 km grid spacing domains. In part
II, simulations for a 1-month period (March 2009) were performed
with an operational version of MM5 installed at the Institute of
Air Space Control (ICEA, Brazil). Two nested domains with grid
spacing of 36 and 12 km, centered at Northeast Brazil, were used.
In the 12 km grid spacing domain, the use of either hybrid
approach (ICEA1) or only explicit scheme (Simple Ice; ICEA2) led
to good representation of the precipitation interdaily
variability, even though the total monthly precipitation was
overestimated. ICEA2 (ICEA1) generated concentrated (broader)
areas with high (lower) precipitation intensity. Despite the
sensitivity of the simulated precipitation to the strategy used,
the errors found in relation to the observations precluded the
possibility of choosing the best strategy. As noted in previous
studies, the doubts on the relationship between hybrid approach
use adequacy and spatial resolution of the domains used in
simulations with mesoscale models do persist, because the use of
explicit schemes alone in higher resolution domains, in the
present study, did not assure significant improvements in
precipitation forecasts.",
committee = "Sansigolo, Cl{\'o}vis Angeli (presidente) and Oyama, Marcos
Daisuke (orientador) and Corr{\^e}a, Cleber Souza",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
englishtitle = "Sensitivity of the simulated precipitation over the Alc{\^a}ntara
Launch Center region to explicit convection schemes: case
studies",
language = "pt",
pages = "154",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP8W/37AUJDB",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP8W/37AUJDB",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "08 maio 2024"
}